Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
