A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
